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The Miami Heat (6-12) will attempt to break a five-game losing streak when they host the Sacramento Kings (8-10) on Saturday, January 30, 2021 at American Airlines Arena as 5-point favorites. The game airs at 8:00 PM ET on SUN. The over/under is set at 224.5 in the matchup.

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The betting insights in this article reflect odds data from DraftKings Sportsbook as of January 30, 2021, 6:42 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds.

Heat vs Kings Betting Odds

Heat vs Kings Props

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Injury Report as of January 30

Heat:
Gabe Vincent: Day To Day (Knee),
Maurice Harkless: Day To Day (Thigh),
Goran Dragic: Out (Groin),
Avery Bradley: Day To Day (Knee),
Tyler Herro: Day To Day (Neck),
Chris Silva: Out (Hip),
Andre Iguodala: Day To Day (Neck),
Jimmy Butler: Day To Day (Health and Safety Protocols),
Meyers Leonard: Out (Shoulder)

Kings:
Nemanja Bjelica: Out (Back),
DaQuan Jeffries: Out (Left ankle),
Jahmi’us Ramsey: Out (Left groin)

Heat and Kings Records ATS

  • Miami’s record against the spread is 6-12 this season.
  • When favored by at least 5 points, the Heat are 1-3 against the spread in 2020-21.
  • Miami and its opponents have gone over the set over/under in 50% of its games this season (9/18).
  • Sacramento holds a losing record ATS this season with eight wins and 10 losses ATS.
  • For the second time this season, the Kings are at least a 5-point underdog, where they have a record of 0-1 against the spread.
  • 33.3% of Sacramento’s 18 games this season have fell below the over/under.

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Scoring Trends

  • Miami’s games this year have gone over the point total for Saturday’s matchup point total (224.5 points) in 33.3% of opportunities (six out of 18 matchups).
  • In 66.7% of Sacramento’s games this season (12 of 18), the total points scored was more than Saturday’s 224.5-point over/under.
  • This season the average total for Heat games is 218 points, 6.5 fewer than the over/under of 224.5 points for this contest.
  • The over/under for this matchup is 9.7 points fewer than the average over/under in Kings’ games this season (234.2 points).
  • The average implied total for the Heat this season is 113.7 points, 1.3 fewer points than their implied total of 115 points in Saturday’s game.
  • This season, Miami has scored more than its implied point total for this matchup (115) five times.
  • The Kings’ average implied point total on the season (116.7 points) is 6.7 points higher than their implied total in this matchup (110 points).
  • This season, Sacramento has scored more than this game’s implied total of 110 points 10 times.
  • The Heat are the NBA’s 27th-highest scoring team (106.2 PPG), while the Kings allow their opponents the most points per game (120.6) in the league.
  • The Heat have a -102-point scoring differential on the season (-5.6 per game). The Kings have also been out-scored by opponents on average this year (-124 total points, -6.9 per game).

Heat Leaders

  • Bam Adebayo leads the Heat in scoring (20.1 points per game), rebounding (9.1 per game) and assisting (5.6 per game).
  • Adebayo’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 35.5, 0.7 higher than his season average of 34.8.
  • The Heat are led by Duncan Robinson from long distance. He knocks down 3.4 shots from deep per game.
  • Robinson’s three pointers made prop over/under for the game is set at 3.5, 0.1 shots higher than his season average of 3.4.
  • Miami’s blocks leader is Kelly Olynyk, who averages 0.8 per game. Jimmy Butler leads the team averaging 2.2 steals a game.
  • Olynyk’s blocks prop total for the contest is set at 0.5, 0.3 blocks lower than his season average of 0.8.

Kings Leaders

  • The Kings go-to guy, De’Aaron Fox, leads the team in both scoring (20.8 points per game) and assists (6.1 assists per game).
  • Fox’s PRA prop total for the game is set at 29.5, 0.6 lower than his season average of 30.1.
  • When it comes to rebounds, Marvin Bagley III is the Sacramento leader with 8.0 per game.
  • Bagley’s rebounding prop total for the game is posted at 7.5 boards, 0.5 rebounds less than his season average of 8.0.
  • Buddy Hield is tops from three-point range for the Kings, hitting 4.0 threes per game.
  • Hield’s three pointers made prop total for the game is set at 3.5, 0.5 shots lower than his season average of 4.0.
  • Nobody on Sacramento grabs more steals than Fox (1.3 per game) or blocks more shots than Richaun Holmes (1.6 per game).
  • Holmes’ blocks prop over/under for the contest is set at 1.5, 0.1 blocks lower than his season average of 1.6.

Predictions

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Nobody has won three straight NBA Most Valuable Player awards since Larry Bird in the mid-1980s, and DraftKings Sportsbook seems to be indicating that the odds of Giannis Antetokounmpo doing it are freakish.

Sort of.

While the Greek Freak is the co-favorite at +600 (along with Luka Doncic), they are nearly twice as high as the numbers posted a week ago by PointsBet, the aggressive Australian-owned company. Antetokounmpo is +350 at PointsBet, and it is somewhat unusual to see such a large margin between two sportsbooks who both see the same player as most likely to win.

LeBron James is +700 along with teammate Anthony Davis at DraftKings. DK initially had Doncic at +700, too, but he is now +600 with Giannis.

Nba Draft Kings Picks Today

“When you are putting up a futures book and you have three 7-1’s, the hold percentage cannot be ridiculous. You have to make it fair,” said DraftKings’ head oddsmaker Johnny Avello. “If anyone attracts an inordinate amount of money, we’ll lower them.”

LeBron was the only player other than Antetokounmpo to receive first place MVP votes this past season. He will be 36 next season, and if he were to win the award for a fifth time, he would become the oldest player ever to capture the hardware. Karl Malone was 35 when he won it in 1999.

Steph Curry of Golden State is right behind LeBron and Davis at +1000, and Kawhi Leonard of the Clippers is +1200. The only other player listed below +2000 is Kevin Durant of the Brooklyn Nets, who is +1600.

NBA MVP odds 2021

(EST)

Draftkings Nba Odds Against

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Can anyone unseat Giannis?

Antetokounmpo is drawing 87% of the handle and 17% of the wagers at DraftKings, where Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns has gotten 17% of the bets at odds of +6000.

“I don’t know why,” Avello said of the bets on Booker. “Maybe they feel there is good value at that number, but in my opinion there are guys at 50-1 that have better value.”

Sportsbetting.com has Doncic listed as the favorite at +400, just ahead of Antetokounmpo at +425 and Curry at +500. James and Davis are +700, just ahead of Harden at +800.

“I think we saw in the bubble who the next face of the NBA is going to be,” said Scott Cooley, a spokesman for the book, said of Doncic. “We had three of the league’s top defenders (Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Patrick Beverley) take turns guarding this kid during the playoffs, and all he did was drop 40-point triple-doubles on them. The Association is on notice.

“When handicapping MVP odds, you also have to consider the supporting cast. The Bucks have a lot of quality players, and possibly Chris Paul on the way, and the Lakers have two superstars. Unless Mark Cuban makes a bold move this offseason, Doncic is on an island.

The outside looking in

DraftKings listed 79 different players with MVP odds, but did not list LaMelo Ball, the soon-to-be-rookie expected to go Top 3 in the Nov. 18 NBA Draft. Ball is listed at +25000 by PointsBet. The longest odds in the DK field include R.J. Barrett of the New York Knicks, Malik Beasley of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Bojan Bogdanovic of the Utah Jazz, Christian Wood of the Detroit Pistons, Derrick Rose of the Pistons and Collin Sexton of the Cavaliers – all at +50000.

But enough about longshots, and we will spare you the alternative facts that say the Knicks, Pistons, Cavs and Timberwolves actually have a chance at making the playoffs in 2021. They will all stink.

Draftkings Nba Odds

Let’s take a look at players that could actually be in the mix if things fall the right way. Former MVP James Harden of the Houston Rockets is among a group of players at +2000, joined by Nikola Jokic of Denver, Jayson Tatum of Boston, Jimmy Butler of Miami and Damian Lillard of Portland. Former MVP Russell Westbrook is +6000, along with Zion Williamson of the Pelicans and Jamal Murray of Denver. One notable player of the 13 guys listed at +10000 is Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat.